Иван Богатый – канал | United States America (US)

Create: 2023-02-24 Update: 2024-05-14 23:01:53

Отмечу успех своего предсказания.

В декабре я описал общий процесс коммодитизации технологических монополий и заявил, что даже Google, ранее бессменно лучший работодатель мира и прочая и прочая, уже не торт. Достиг потолка насыщения рынка, и теперь на смену свободного мореплавания в поисках великих открытий приходит оптимизация издержек и zero-sum корпоративная политика.

Месяц спустя, в январе, Гугл объявил о сокращении 12 тысяч (!!) сотрудников.

Два месяца спустя, в феврале, акции Гугла обвалились на 9%, потеряв сто миллиардов долларов рыночной капитализации.
Причина: страх, что технология выдачи текстовых ответов на текстовые вопросы, которая в Гугле опирается на десятки датацентров и ~двести миллиардов долларов в год операционных расходов, будет коммодитизирована одной нейросеткой (ChatGPT), которую OpenAI при желании может опенсорснуть за день.

Хотите знать будущее до того, как оно случится? Читайте канал Ивана Богатого.

Следующий пост, впрочем, будет 100% личный (про то, как я знакомлюсь с девушками на улице и что из этого выходит).

Иван Богатый – канал

Технологические монополии Знакомый недавно закончил достаточно хорошую PhD-программу в США и вышел на работу в IBM Research, несмотря на мои настойчивые попытки пристроить его в Google Research. После нескольких месяцев работы предсказуемо рапортует о сонных…

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Иван Богатый – канал

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Spiking bond yields driving sharp losses in tech stocks

A spike in interest rates since the start of the year has accelerated a rotation out of high-growth technology stocks and into value stocks poised to benefit from a reopening of the economy. The Nasdaq has fallen more than 10% over the past month as the Dow has soared to record highs, with a spike in the 10-year US Treasury yield acting as the main catalyst. It recently surged to a cycle high of more than 1.60% after starting the year below 1%. But according to Jim Paulsen, the Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist, rising interest rates do not represent a long-term threat to the stock market. Paulsen expects the 10-year yield to cross 2% by the end of the year. A spike in interest rates and its impact on the stock market depends on the economic backdrop, according to Paulsen. Rising interest rates amid a strengthening economy "may prove no challenge at all for stocks," Paulsen said.

Отмечу успех своего предсказания.

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