桥水基金的创始人Dalio如是说：

How should these problems be dealt with? To me, as a macroeconomic thinker who approaches such debt and economic problems more like a doctor than an ideologue, the leadership needs to have a debt restructuring, which it should do via engineering a beautiful deleveraging or it will have a “lost decade” like Japan’s. While many people think policy makers should ease monetary policy to create more credit, I think they correctly view creating more credit and debt like giving an alcoholic a drink to help ease withdrawal problems. I believe that they should engineer both 1) a deleveraging (which is deflationary, depressing, and will reduce the debt burden) and 2) an easing of monetary policy (which is inflationary, stimulative, and will ease the debt burden) so that the deflationary ways of reducing debt and the inflationary ways of doing it balance. This is what I mean by a “beautiful deleveraging.” In my opinion, this should have been done two years ago and if not done will probably lead to a lost decade. I think some of the economic leaders, especially those who did this under Zhu Rongji, understand how to do this, but it is very difficult and politically dangerous to do because it engineers big changes in wealth, which is politically challenging, especially during a difficult time because people squawk. In my opinion, if the leadership doesn’t execute a beautiful deleveraging, China will have a Japanese-style lost decade with Marxist characteristics.

这些问题应该如何处理？在我看来，作为一个宏观经济思想家，他更像一个医生而不是一个理论家来处理这些债务和经济问题，领导层需要进行债务重组，它应该通过设计一个漂亮的去杠杆化来实现，否则它将有一个像日本一样的“失去的十年”。虽然许多人认为政策制定者应该放松货币政策以创造更多信贷，但我认为他们正确地认为创造更多的信贷和债务就像给酒鬼喝酒一样，以帮助缓解提款问题。我认为他们应该设计（1）去杠杆化（这是通货紧缩的，令人沮丧的，并将减轻债务负担）和（2）放松货币政策（这是通货膨胀的，刺激性的，并将减轻债务负担），以便减少债务的通货紧缩方式和通货膨胀方式平衡。这就是我所说的“美丽的去杠杆化”的意思。在我看来，这应该在两年前完成，如果不这样做，可能会导致失去的十年。我认为一些经济领导人，特别是那些在朱镕基领导下这样做的领导人，知道如何做到这一点，但这样做非常困难，在政治上也很危险，因为它会导致财富发生巨大变化，这在政治上具有挑战性，尤其是在困难时期，因为人们大喊大叫。在我看来，如果领导层不执行漂亮的去杠杆化，中国将有一个具有马克思主义特征的日本式的失落十年。

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/china-100-year-storm-horizon-how-five-big-forces-playing-ray-dalio-wysbc/?trackingId=Qqrp41emQCCrb09Gp%2BtBRA%3D%3D

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桥水基金的创始人Dalio如是说：

How should these problems be dealt with? To me, as a macroeconomic thinker who approaches such debt and economic problems more like a doctor than an ideologue, the leadership needs to have a debt restructuring, which it should do via engineering a beautiful deleveraging or it will have a “lost decade” like Japan’s. While many people think policy makers should ease monetary policy to create more credit, I think they correctly view creating more credit and debt like giving an alcoholic a drink to help ease withdrawal problems. I believe that they should engineer both 1) a deleveraging (which is deflationary, depressing, and will reduce the debt burden) and 2) an easing of monetary policy (which is inflationary, stimulative, and will ease the debt burden) so that the deflationary ways of reducing debt and the inflationary ways of doing it balance. This is what I mean by a “beautiful deleveraging.” In my opinion, this should have been done two years ago and if not done will probably lead to a lost decade. I think some of the economic leaders, especially those who did this under Zhu Rongji, understand how to do this, but it is very difficult and politically dangerous to do because it engineers big changes in wealth, which is politically challenging, especially during a difficult time because people squawk. In my opinion, if the leadership doesn’t execute a beautiful deleveraging, China will have a Japanese-style lost decade with Marxist characteristics.

这些问题应该如何处理？在我看来，作为一个宏观经济思想家，他更像一个医生而不是一个理论家来处理这些债务和经济问题，领导层需要进行债务重组，它应该通过设计一个漂亮的去杠杆化来实现，否则它将有一个像日本一样的“失去的十年”。虽然许多人认为政策制定者应该放松货币政策以创造更多信贷，但我认为他们正确地认为创造更多的信贷和债务就像给酒鬼喝酒一样，以帮助缓解提款问题。我认为他们应该设计（1）去杠杆化（这是通货紧缩的，令人沮丧的，并将减轻债务负担）和（2）放松货币政策（这是通货膨胀的，刺激性的，并将减轻债务负担），以便减少债务的通货紧缩方式和通货膨胀方式平衡。这就是我所说的“美丽的去杠杆化”的意思。在我看来，这应该在两年前完成，如果不这样做，可能会导致失去的十年。我认为一些经济领导人，特别是那些在朱镕基领导下这样做的领导人，知道如何做到这一点，但这样做非常困难，在政治上也很危险，因为它会导致财富发生巨大变化，这在政治上具有挑战性，尤其是在困难时期，因为人们大喊大叫。在我看来，如果领导层不执行漂亮的去杠杆化，中国将有一个具有马克思主义特征的日本式的失落十年。

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/china-100-year-storm-horizon-how-five-big-forces-playing-ray-dalio-wysbc/?trackingId=Qqrp41emQCCrb09Gp%2BtBRA%3D%3D

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In China: The 100-Year Storm on the Horizon and How the Five Big Forces Are Playing Out

A few years ago, President Xi Jinping started warning that a 100-year big storm is coming. As is typical of the early days of a hurricane, one can now feel it.

hottg.com/timeshack/311

205 viewsvirusyu🅥, Mar 31 at 08:05