Стартап дня. Александр Горный. | United States America (US)

Create: 2024-03-17 Update: 2024-05-14 05:08:02

Telegram: IPO или банкротство

Люди активно обсуждают финансовое положение Телеграма.

Дуров:
– У нас все хорошо, выручка растет, скоро IPO, оценка 30 ярдов.
Критики:
– Долги, убытки, выручки мало, аудитория в неплатящих странах, кривая схема TON, облигации не стали бестселлером.

Впечатлительные читатели могут и правда решить, что у Телеграма какие-то проблемы. Их нет. Если принять на веру и удвоить все аргументы критиков, то проблемы есть у Павла Дурова. Он не сможет выйти на IPO по оценке 30 миллиардов, а вынужден будет продать компанию консорциуму кредиторов по оценке в 6 раз меньше. Вместо примерно пятидесятого места в списке Forbes Павел окажется в пятой-шестой сотне. Крайне неприятно, но всем бы такие проблемы.

С самим мессенджером все будет хорошо. Он уже существует, это уже актив, которому не дадут пропасть при любых финансовых пертурбациях. Новое руководство, правда, может развивать его не так хорошо, как основатель. Но обсуждать это сейчас ну совершенно бессмысленно – это вариант внутри варианта. С тем же успехом можно печалиться о том, что после успешного IPO ради квартальных отчетов уже самому Павлу придется гайки монетизации неадекватно закручивать.

Если вы не владелец облигаций — точно есть другие поводы для волнений.

#простомысли

—
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Spiking bond yields driving sharp losses in tech stocks

A spike in interest rates since the start of the year has accelerated a rotation out of high-growth technology stocks and into value stocks poised to benefit from a reopening of the economy. The Nasdaq has fallen more than 10% over the past month as the Dow has soared to record highs, with a spike in the 10-year US Treasury yield acting as the main catalyst. It recently surged to a cycle high of more than 1.60% after starting the year below 1%. But according to Jim Paulsen, the Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist, rising interest rates do not represent a long-term threat to the stock market. Paulsen expects the 10-year yield to cross 2% by the end of the year. A spike in interest rates and its impact on the stock market depends on the economic backdrop, according to Paulsen. Rising interest rates amid a strengthening economy "may prove no challenge at all for stocks," Paulsen said.

Telegram: IPO или банкротство

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Telegram Updated: 2024-05-14 05:08:02

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