Create: 2024-03-31 Update: 2024-05-01 00:54:42

Возможно, интересное для криптотрейдеров. Долгосрочным холдерам можно пропустить.

Сезонный фактор, оказывается, присутствует не только на традиционных финансовых рынках, но и на ~~нетра~~.. альтернативных. Правда, из-за относительно короткой истории сезонность в крипте считается (пока) не по месяцам, а по торговым дням. Далее- график от sentimentrader.com

Небольшой комментарий от меня. Я не совсем согласен с подсчетом торговых дней. Авторы графика, вероятно, использовали стандартный подход, присущий рынку акций, согласно которому в году примерно 252 торговых дня. Крипта же торгуется 24/7 без выходных и праздников, поэтому лично я бы предпочел график сезонности, построенный из расчета 365 торговых дней. Но, как говорится, дареному коню в зубы не смотрят, да и общее впечатление данный график получить помогает.

Короче говоря, до сих пор (на конец 1-го квартала) динамика биткойна (красным), в целом, соответствовала сезонному паттерну (синим). Если так пойдет и дальше, то следующие 2-2,5 месяца также являются позитивным периодом для курса BTC/USD. За которым следует слабый сезон длительностью примерно 3-4 месяца.

Напомню, что только на основании сезонности нельзя строить свою торговую стратегию, так как это- усредненная динамика за много лет, а внутри каждого отдельно взятого года она может быть любой. Однако понимание того, куда сейчас направлена сезонность может помочь в принятии решений, например, о покупке, если эти решения приняты на основе других факторов.

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