Create: 2024-03-25 Update: 2024-05-01 01:38:08

Любопытно, как точно повторяет динамика потребительской инфляции в США с 2017 по 2024 гг (желтая линия, левая шкала) динамику 1970-х годов (белая линия, правая шкала). В абсолюте цифры инфляции ниже, но вот ее направление…

Если так пойдет и дальше, то вполне реальным может стать сценарий, при котором рынку осталось еще несколько кварталов снижающегося CPI. Это даст возможность ФРС ответить ожиданиям инвесторов и приступить к циклу снижения ставок. Рынок акций тогда, вероятно, продолжит рост, игнорируя текущую перегретость. Но снижение инфляции окажется временным, после чего она снова начнет расти. Это заставит ФРС вновь пересмотреть свое отношение и начать ужесточать монетарную политику более агрессивными темпами. Что, в свою очередь, приведет уже не к коррекции, а к затяжному медвежьему рынку в акциях. С какого уровня он начнется (S&P-500 6к или 7к), сказать невозможно. Да и, вообще, пока все это лишь фантазия, вызванная сравнительной динамикой CPI тогда и сейчас. Хотя она, как минимум, не хуже всех остальных.

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Should I buy bitcoin?

“To the extent it is used I fear it’s often for illicit finance. It’s an extremely inefficient way of conducting transactions, and the amount of energy that’s consumed in processing those transactions is staggering,” the former Fed chairwoman said. Yellen’s comments have been cited as a reason for bitcoin’s recent losses. However, Yellen’s assessment of bitcoin as a inefficient medium of exchange is an important point and one that has already been raised in the past by bitcoin bulls. Using a volatile asset in exchange for goods and services makes little sense if the asset can tumble 10% in a day, or surge 80% over the course of a two months as bitcoin has done in 2021, critics argue. To put a finer point on it, over the past 12 months bitcoin has registered 8 corrections, defined as a decline from a recent peak of at least 10% but not more than 20%, and two bear markets, which are defined as falls of 20% or more, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

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