Create: 2023-04-07 Update: 2024-06-01 17:20:33

通胀与萧条

通胀

经济萎靡不振的时候, 国家印钱刺激经济. 国家印钱实际上就是通过央行购买国债或者降准来给商业银行更多的信贷额度, 商业银行也得以用更优惠的利率贷款给企业, 企业有了钱便会加大生产投入.

企业们加大投入生产, 原材料便会首先开始变得供不应求, 这便是为什么通胀开始的时候首先涨价的是大宗商品; 同时工厂会多招工人, 失业率回落. 然后原材料涨价拉高了生产成本, 价格一级一级往下游传导, 最后转嫁到消费者身上.

萧条

萧条的本质是供过于求, 印钱增加的生产消费不过来. 这可能有两方面原因, 一是经济学家们计算错误, 刺激力度过大, 导致多生产的物品远超需求; 另一方面是刺激没有照顾到居民收入, 只在生产端刺激造成物价上涨, 而没有同时刺激消费端, 这个结果就是物价高居, 但居民没钱买, 也就是 “滞胀”.

这就是为什么美联储最近一年持续关注通胀和失业率数据并且持续加息, 就是怕之前经济刺激过头了, 一旦经济刺激过头, 导致商品生产超出了居民消费能力, 那么随之而来的就是萧条.

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通胀与萧条

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