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ПРОТОКОЛ ПОСЛЕДНЕГО FOMC ОКАЗАЛСЯ ВЕСЬМА ГОЛУБИНЫМ

Последние недели рынки накручивали себя неизбежностью агрессивных действий со стороны ФРС. Но опубликованные вечером протоколы FOMC показали, что на заседании в конце января члены Комитеты были настроены спокойно. Хотя они дружно признали необходимость скорого повышения ставок и сворачивания баланса, но никаких разговоров о +50 бп в марте и 7 повышениях в течение года не звучало.

Рынки приободрились на этих новостях. Ожидания по ставке из фьючерсов заметно снизились – рынок сейчас прайсит лишь 6 хайков к декабрю +25 бп в марте.

Мы не думаем, что протоколам стоит придавать большое значение. Драматичная январская инфляции вышла уже после FOMC.

Рынок США:

• S&P500: +0.06%
• Nasdaq: -0.09%
• UST10 – 2.03% YtM

Вероятность повышения ставки:

• +50 в марте – 44% (58%)
• +75 к маю – 54% (65%)
• +100 к июню –63% (75%)
• +125 к июлю – 53% (66%)
• +150 к сентябрю – 41% (53%)
• +175 к декабрю – 49% (57%)
• +200 к февралю 2023 – 28.5% (38%)

MMI MARKET SENTIMENT INDEX
ПРОТОКОЛ ПОСЛЕДНЕГО FOMC ОКАЗАЛСЯ ВЕСЬМА ГОЛУБИНЫМ

Последние недели рынки накручивали себя неизбежностью агрессивных действий со стороны ФРС. Но опубликованные вечером протоколы FOMC показали, что на заседании в конце января члены Комитеты были настроены спокойно. Хотя они дружно признали необходимость скорого повышения ставок и сворачивания баланса, но никаких разговоров о +50 бп в марте и 7 повышениях в течение года не звучало.

Рынки приободрились на этих новостях. Ожидания по ставке из фьючерсов заметно снизились – рынок сейчас прайсит лишь 6 хайков к декабрю +25 бп в марте.

Мы не думаем, что протоколам стоит придавать большое значение. Драматичная январская инфляции вышла уже после FOMC.

Рынок США:

• S&P500: +0.06%
• Nasdaq: -0.09%
• UST10 – 2.03% YtM

Вероятность повышения ставки:

• +50 в марте – 44% (58%)
• +75 к маю – 54% (65%)
• +100 к июню –63% (75%)
• +125 к июлю – 53% (66%)
• +150 к сентябрю – 41% (53%)
• +175 к декабрю – 49% (57%)
• +200 к февралю 2023 – 28.5% (38%)
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Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that you can buy, sell and exchange directly, without an intermediary like a bank. Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, originally described the need for “an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust.” Each and every Bitcoin transaction that’s ever been made exists on a public ledger accessible to everyone, making transactions hard to reverse and difficult to fake. That’s by design: Core to their decentralized nature, Bitcoins aren’t backed by the government or any issuing institution, and there’s nothing to guarantee their value besides the proof baked in the heart of the system. “The reason why it’s worth money is simply because we, as people, decided it has value—same as gold,” says Anton Mozgovoy, co-founder & CEO of digital financial service company Holyheld.

ПРОТОКОЛ ПОСЛЕДНЕГО FOMC ОКАЗАЛСЯ ВЕСЬМА ГОЛУБИНЫМ

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