*U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision:*

Current: 4.5%
Expected: 4.5%
Previous: 4.5%

(Federal Reserve maintains status quo as expected, policy comments and outlook would be important to watch for further outlook)

*FED Outlook:*

Fed's Outlook Suggests Rate Cuts of 50 BPS in 2025, 25 BPS in 2026, and 25 BPS in 2027.

FOMC median forecast shows rates at 3.6% in 2026, 3.4% in 2027.

Fed Policymakers Anticipate 4.5% Unemployment Rate By End Of 2025, Up From 4.4% In March.

Fed policymakers see end-2025 PCE inflation at 3.0% versus 2.7% in March, Core seen at 3.1% versus 2.8%.

Fed see 1.4% GDP growth in 2025 versus 1.7% in March, see longer-run growth at 1.8% vs 1.8% in March.


(US interest rate futures price in 71% chance of Fed cut in September, was 60% just before)

*FED CHAIR POWELL STARTS PRESS CONFERENCE*

INFLATION HAS BEEN RUNNING SOMEWHAT ABOVE GOAL.

CURRENT POLICY STANCE LEAVES US WELL POSITIONED.

*FED'S POWELL:*

PDFP, WHICH EXCLUDES NET EXPORTS, GREW AT SOLID RATE || SAYS SENTIMENT SOURED, REFLECTING TRADE POLICY CONCERNS.

LABOR CONDITIONS CONSISTENT WITH MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT. SAYS NEAR-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HAVE MOVED UP, TARIFFS DRIVING FACTOR.

UNEMPLOYMENT HAS STAYED IN NARROW RANGE, LOW. SAYS LABOR MARKET NOT A SOURCE OF INFLATION.

*POWELL:*

FOR THE TIME BEING, WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT BEFORE POLICY ADJUSTMENTS.

MOST MEASURES OF LONG-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS CONSISTENT WITH 2% INFLATION || SAYS EFFECTS OF TARIFFS WILL DEPEND ON LEVEL, INCREASES THIS YEAR WILL LIKELY WEIGH ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, PUSH UP INLFATION

(AS EXPECTED FED BLAMED TARRIFS FOR HIGHER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS)

*FED'S POWELL:*

IN LOOKING AT FED POLICY PATH PROJECTIONS, FOCUS ON NEAR-TERM; HARD TO FORECAST LONGER TERM || SAYS ADAPTING IN REAL-TIME TO ESTIMATES OF HOW HIGH TARIFFS WILL BE.

CAN'T ASSUME INFLATION WILL JUST MOVE UP, AND THEN BACK DOWN, AS PROJECTIONS SHOW.

IN STATEMENT SAID UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ECONOMIC HAS DIMINISHED, THAT'S A LINE FROM THE FED'S TEAL BOOK || SAYS UNCERTAINTY PEAKED IN APRIL AND HAS COME DOWN.

🇮🇳MASTERMIND™🇮🇳

*U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision:*

Current: 4.5%
Expected: 4.5%
Previous: 4.5%

(Federal Reserve maintains status quo as expected, policy comments and outlook would be important to watch for further outlook)

*FED Outlook:*

Fed's Outlook Suggests Rate Cuts of 50 BPS in 2025, 25 BPS in 2026, and 25 BPS in 2027.

FOMC median forecast shows rates at 3.6% in 2026, 3.4% in 2027.

Fed Policymakers Anticipate 4.5% Unemployment Rate By End Of 2025, Up From 4.4% In March.

Fed policymakers see end-2025 PCE inflation at 3.0% versus 2.7% in March, Core seen at 3.1% versus 2.8%.

Fed see 1.4% GDP growth in 2025 versus 1.7% in March, see longer-run growth at 1.8% vs 1.8% in March.


(US interest rate futures price in 71% chance of Fed cut in September, was 60% just before)

*FED CHAIR POWELL STARTS PRESS CONFERENCE*

INFLATION HAS BEEN RUNNING SOMEWHAT ABOVE GOAL.

CURRENT POLICY STANCE LEAVES US WELL POSITIONED.

*FED'S POWELL:*

PDFP, WHICH EXCLUDES NET EXPORTS, GREW AT SOLID RATE || SAYS SENTIMENT SOURED, REFLECTING TRADE POLICY CONCERNS.

LABOR CONDITIONS CONSISTENT WITH MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT. SAYS NEAR-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HAVE MOVED UP, TARIFFS DRIVING FACTOR.

UNEMPLOYMENT HAS STAYED IN NARROW RANGE, LOW. SAYS LABOR MARKET NOT A SOURCE OF INFLATION.

*POWELL:*

FOR THE TIME BEING, WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT BEFORE POLICY ADJUSTMENTS.

MOST MEASURES OF LONG-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS CONSISTENT WITH 2% INFLATION || SAYS EFFECTS OF TARIFFS WILL DEPEND ON LEVEL, INCREASES THIS YEAR WILL LIKELY WEIGH ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, PUSH UP INLFATION

(AS EXPECTED FED BLAMED TARRIFS FOR HIGHER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS)

*FED'S POWELL:*

IN LOOKING AT FED POLICY PATH PROJECTIONS, FOCUS ON NEAR-TERM; HARD TO FORECAST LONGER TERM || SAYS ADAPTING IN REAL-TIME TO ESTIMATES OF HOW HIGH TARIFFS WILL BE.

CAN'T ASSUME INFLATION WILL JUST MOVE UP, AND THEN BACK DOWN, AS PROJECTIONS SHOW.

IN STATEMENT SAID UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ECONOMIC HAS DIMINISHED, THAT'S A LINE FROM THE FED'S TEAL BOOK || SAYS UNCERTAINTY PEAKED IN APRIL AND HAS COME DOWN.

❤5

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1.4K viewsSamm, Jun 18 at 23:46