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Create: 2024-04-06 Update: 2024-05-21 21:22:05

Peter Schiff的那篇文章很好，我看了超过两遍，做成了电子书。

但是当我关注他的Twitter时，发现他像《穷爸爸，富爸爸》的作者一样令人失望。他看好金银而不看好加密货币，后者看好比特币和金银，两人都看空美元。他们近期的推文十有八九是相关的内容，却没有什么深度，乍一看跟赌徒没啥区别。

他有一个几年前的推文说，“马斯克知道比特币是庞氏骗局，加入的越晚受益越小，因此他才炒作狗狗币”。这一点，我跟他的想法是类似的。但我不知道什么不是庞氏骗局。

币圈很多人认为，“货币的本质就是共识”。所有的人都像宣传机器一样简单的重复对自己有利的观点，只是为了让更多的人加入自己的阵营，从而能够推高自己的资产。

历史上，政府进行币值改革时，常常不惜使用暴力让别人加入自己的阵营，承认自己的纸币。等人们形成普遍共识后，即使一个政府倒台，它发行的货币还会被使用很长时间。

有什么货币不是庞氏骗局吗？五十步笑百步而已。

未来人们可能没有太多普遍的共识，也就不会有那么多被所有人承认的货币，这也是需要分散投资的重要因素。

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https://mises.org/mises-daily/why-meltdown-should-have-surprised-no-one 在《货币战争》中看到一段话。我想起昨天看的汤山老王关于恒大的一个视频，早在2012年就有人通过公开数据写了份做空恒大的报告，但是没有得到应有的重视，甚至被指责为造谣抹黑，国内多家评级机构还帮着掩盖问题。如果恒大这个庞氏骗局需要十年才能被揭穿，那么美元可能需要更长的时间才可能被揭穿。所有的利益相关者，都会帮着掩盖问题。

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Peter Schiff的那篇文章很好，我看了超过两遍，做成了电子书。

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