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Create: 2025-06-18 Update: 2025-07-09 18:02:28

Инфляционные ожидания – косметическое снижение

👍В июне инфляционные ожидания незначительно снизились до 13% (13,4% в мае) после двух месяцев роста. Снижение произошло за счёт граждан без сбережений (их ожидания сократились за месяц с 15% до 14,3%). Инфляционные ожидания граждан, имеющих сбережения, не изменились (11,6%).

👍Любопытно, что снижение инфляционных ожиданий граждан, не имеющих сбережений, произошло одновременно с ростом наблюдаемой ими инфляции (с 16,8% до 17%), что говорит о зыбкости зафиксированного позитива.

👍Наблюдаемая всеми гражданами инфляция также выросла (15,7%, против 15,5% в мае) при стабильности показателя у граждан со сбережениями (14%).

Наше мнение:
Пока сложно назвать полученные данные достаточным основанием для Банка России усилить смягчение денежно-кредитной политики. Для этого регулятору необходимо увидеть дальнейшее снижение инфляционных ожиданий в июле. Однако, есть сомнения в устойчивости тренда в связи с ожидаемым повышением тарифов ЖКХ с 01.07.2025, а также ростом наблюдаемой инфляции. Пока ориентируемся на осторожную тактику ЦБ РФ: сохранение нейтрального сигнала и темпов снижения ключевой ставки.

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Инфляционные ожидания – косметическое снижение

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