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美股因為關稅戰本周經歷了瘋狂的袋鼠市極端上沖下洗，不過大幅波動的不止是股市還有債市，30年期公債殖利率一度飆到5%，在市場大規模重挫時基本上失去避險功能，流動性危機反而成為另一個風暴中心。

有人認為是中國在貿易戰對美債倒貨，但高槓桿的basis trade大規模平倉去槓桿，大幅推升了債市的波動，也讓市場無處可避風險都湧入黃金。

債市的波動混亂基本上聯準會是不可能會坐視不管的，流動性恐慌若加大遲早會出手，無論原因是什麼，債市的混亂最後可能都會傳導到風險資產。

不過更長期的來看，川普貿易戰如果終極目標是降低逆差，那其實這些順差國手上就更少美元，美債市場的需求就會降低。可能反而會推升利率變成美國政府不願見的的局面

更詳細的內容可以看這篇 https://ieobserv.com/basis_trade

Patreon版本： https://www.patreon.com/posts/mei-zhai-da-fu-126418126

IEObserve 國際經濟觀察
美股因為關稅戰本周經歷了瘋狂的袋鼠市極端上沖下洗，不過大幅波動的不止是股市還有債市，30年期公債殖利率一度飆到5%，在市場大規模重挫時基本上失去避險功能，流動性危機反而成為另一個風暴中心。

有人認為是中國在貿易戰對美債倒貨，但高槓桿的basis trade大規模平倉去槓桿，大幅推升了債市的波動，也讓市場無處可避風險都湧入黃金。

債市的波動混亂基本上聯準會是不可能會坐視不管的，流動性恐慌若加大遲早會出手，無論原因是什麼，債市的混亂最後可能都會傳導到風險資產。

不過更長期的來看，川普貿易戰如果終極目標是降低逆差，那其實這些順差國手上就更少美元，美債市場的需求就會降低。可能反而會推升利率變成美國政府不願見的的局面

更詳細的內容可以看這篇 https://ieobserv.com/basis_trade

Patreon版本： https://www.patreon.com/posts/mei-zhai-da-fu-126418126
vocus.cc
美債大幅震盪的黑手：基差交易還是貿易戰中國倒貨？
美國國債市場近期出現異常震盪，
這篇文章探討造成此現象的關鍵因素，包括基差交易的風險、中國可能拋售美債的影響，以及美元需求變化對全球金融體系的衝擊。
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美股因為關稅戰本周經歷了瘋狂的袋鼠市極端上沖下洗，不過大幅波動的不止是股市還有債市，30年期公債殖利率一度飆到5%，在市場大規模重挫時基本上失去避險功能，流動性危機反而成為另一個風暴中心。

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