Create: 2025-07-01 Update: 2025-07-09 21:06:35

📉 Рецессия? Техническая - вполне!

📌 Проблемы в обработке уже в июне подтверждались продолжающимся снижением похожего индекса от Росстата

📌 Сегодня же мы получили негативные данные по июльскому индексу PMI – максимальное с марта 2022 снижение с 50.2 до 47.5 пунктов вслед за новыми заказами и выпуском, сокращение занятости было максимальным с апреля 2022, а инфляция издержек/конечной продукции была минимальной с февраля 2020/ноября 2022.

📌 Так же как и для ИБК смотрим на 3-мес. скользящее среднее + последние точки для обработки и всей экономике и накладываем на периоды снижения с.к. выпуска в обработке/ВВП в целом - оптически можно предположить наличие рецессии в промышленности и условия, близкие к рецессии в целом по экономике.

⁉️ Подтвердятся ли эти выводы на фактические данных за 2К25, увидим позже...

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📢 Какие сигналы от опросных/оперативных индикаторов? 📌 Про июньский индекс-бизнес климата (ИБК) был комментарий в почтовой рассылке две недели назад, но тут не выкладывал – там получили снижение И К до уровней конца 2022- начала 2023 📌 Но относительно неплохие…

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How to Invest in Bitcoin?

Like a stock, you can buy and hold Bitcoin as an investment. You can even now do so in special retirement accounts called Bitcoin IRAs. No matter where you choose to hold your Bitcoin, people’s philosophies on how to invest it vary: Some buy and hold long term, some buy and aim to sell after a price rally, and others bet on its price decreasing. Bitcoin’s price over time has experienced big price swings, going as low as $5,165 and as high as $28,990 in 2020 alone. “I think in some places, people might be using Bitcoin to pay for things, but the truth is that it’s an asset that looks like it’s going to be increasing in value relatively quickly for some time,” Marquez says. “So why would you sell something that’s going to be worth so much more next year than it is today? The majority of people that hold it are long-term investors.”

📉 Рецессия? Техническая - вполне!

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