Create: 2025-07-01 Update: 2025-07-07 21:02:01

...а квартальный ВВП сократился

📌 С поправкой на сезонность/календарь (далее с.к.) экономика потеряла 0.6% к/к с.к. после бурного роста на 1.1% в 4К24

📌 Спад во многом из-за падения в добыче, операциях с недвижимостью, торговле и культуре/искусстве/спорте, в числе растущих – сельское хозяйство, обработка, строительство и финансы/страхование

📌 Если по с.к. данным оценить рост за год, то получим торможение с 4% до 1.5% г/г с.к. – в итоге, то же замедление

📌 Убрать искажения очень сильного 4К24 и понять формирующиеся в 2025 годовые тренды vs 2024 можно также сравнением 1К25 с 3К24 и средним за 1К-3К24 (правый график) – в аутсайдерах добыча, энергетика/ЖКХ, недвижимость, профтехуслуги, рост поддерживает обработка, стройка, финансы/страхование и госсектор.

Запомним драйверы роста, чтобы потом понять, что про них говорят опросы...

Полевой

📉 Что говорят данные? ВВП тормозит... Годовой рост ВВП в 1К25 ожидаемо замедлился с 4.5% до 1.4% на фоне торможения в производственных отраслях (с/хоз-во, промышленность и стройка) и услугах (все остальное кроме госсектора/бюджетников), но всё еще неплохой…

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Spiking bond yields driving sharp losses in tech stocks

A spike in interest rates since the start of the year has accelerated a rotation out of high-growth technology stocks and into value stocks poised to benefit from a reopening of the economy. The Nasdaq has fallen more than 10% over the past month as the Dow has soared to record highs, with a spike in the 10-year US Treasury yield acting as the main catalyst. It recently surged to a cycle high of more than 1.60% after starting the year below 1%. But according to Jim Paulsen, the Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist, rising interest rates do not represent a long-term threat to the stock market. Paulsen expects the 10-year yield to cross 2% by the end of the year. A spike in interest rates and its impact on the stock market depends on the economic backdrop, according to Paulsen. Rising interest rates amid a strengthening economy "may prove no challenge at all for stocks," Paulsen said.

...а квартальный ВВП сократился

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