Create: 2025-04-03 Update: 2025-04-09 08:16:19

📉 Услуги стагнируют

Вслед за промышленностью, где активность уже сокращается, в услугах динамика близка к стагнации в терминах PMI:

📌 Индекс снизился с 50.5 до 50.1 - минимум с июня 24

📌 Рост новых заказов - минимум с июля, отражает снижение покупательной способности клиентов

📌 Сокращение занятости впервые с июля 2023 максимальным темпом за 2+ года

📌 Несмотря на рост, инфляция издержек - 2-й минимальный рост с июля 2020

📌 Рост отпускных цен минимальным темпом с января 2021 в попытке поддержать продажи и спрос

📌 Но ожидания продолжили расти, оптимизм сохраняется

Итог - опросы PMI явно указывают на ускоренное торможение активности и ценовой динамики. Росстат также фиксирует торможение в промышленности до уровней начала 2023

В контексте вчерашней недельной инфляции, которой все испугались - шансы на возобновление дезинфляции высоки, да и рост бытовых услуг замедлился, судя по вчерашним данным.

Поэтому не забываем, последовательность такая: охлаждение кредита, охлаждение спроса, замедление инфляции...

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📉 Услуги стагнируют

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