Хорошая серия постов @Иллинойс

Create: 2023-06-13 Update: 2024-04-27 17:16:24

Хорошая серия постов, в которой рассмотрены системные недостатки военно-технической поддержки Украины со стороны НАТО. Вывод:

"Можно предполагать, что боевые действия не завершатся в 2023 году, ни в последующем за ним – и, вполне вероятно, не завершатся в ближайшие годы".

Ранее к тому же выводу, сформулированному в виде статьи в Foreign Affairs, пришли американские военные эксперты Роб Ли и Майкл Кофман (если кто-то заинтересован в военной аналитике без эмоций и политики, то у обоих есть аккаунты в твиттере).

Ли и Кофман пишут, что текущее украинское контрнаступление, возможно, и ознаменуется переходом под контроль Киева каких-то территорий, но военные действия это не остановит и решающего перевеса Украине не даст.

Поэтому, оценивая перспективы развития ситуации, Ли и Кофман рекомендуют западным странам исходить из того, что в серии постов Atomic Cherry названо "позиционным тупиком", и планировать свои действия на долгосрочный период. Пока Запад "раскачивается" и пытается адаптировать военно-техническую поддержку Украины под складывающиеся реалии.

И России, и Украине затягивание военного конфликта на длительный срок крайне не выгодно, но выхода пока не видно. Для Осетии он уже обернулся очень большими и всесторонними потерями, последствия которых нам еще предстоит отрефлексировать.

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1.7K viewsJun 13, 2023 at 15:31

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