اليمن أنصار الله | United States America (US)

Create: 2024-04-15 Update: 2024-05-14 12:48:11

ماذا بعد الضربات الايرانية

يعتقد الكثيرين ان الضربات ستؤدي إلى جر المنطقة لحرب اقليمية عالمية لاتبقي ولا تذر!!!

ولكن تصرف طهران قبل الضربة وطبيعة اهداف الضربة وتحركها الديبلوماسي مابعدها ما بعد الضربه يحتوي الصراع ولا يوسعه واعتقد بان الوضع لا يتجه للتصعيد!!!

فعندما اخطرت طهران واشنطن عبر السفارة السويسرية(ولم يكن اختيار اعتباطي بحكم ان سويسرا دولة محايده)بان الرد قادم لا محالة وسيكوم محدود وبذلك فهي طبقت حقها الدولي في الدفاع عن النفس وفق المادة 51 من ميثاق الأمم المتحده

ونوعية الضربه كان متناسب مع سبب الهجوم فقد كانت الاهداف 100%عسكرية ولم يصل اي قصف اماكنهم اماكن مدنية وتركز القصف على قاعدة نفاتيم الجوية الإسرائيلية المقر الرئيسي لطائرات F35 وهي نفس النوع الذي استهدف مبنى القنصلية الايرانية في دمشق(سبب الصراع الدائر)

وبعد الضربه قامت طهران بتحذير واشنطن عبر سفارة سويسرا من استهداف قواعدها إذا دعمت أي رد إسرائيلي عليها مادفع بايدن بالتصريح بان الرد امر متروك لاسرائيل(في تلميح بان الرد التصعيدي لن يحضى بدعم واشنطن)

كما ان هناك اصوات اعلامية اسرائيلية تؤكد ان هناك رد على إيران بما لا يؤدي إلى حرب شاملة في الشرق الأوسط.

لذلك اعتقد ان يكون هناك رد اسرائيلي محدود بحجم اقل من الهجمه التي تعرض لها وذلك سيكون بعمليات قصف محدوده لمواقع عسكرية ايرانية(في مجملها سيكون خارج الاراضي الايرانية)انطلق منها عدد من الصواريخ وذلك تحقق معادله صعبه تجمع بين رد يحفظ ماء الوجه في الداخل الاسرائيلي وبين عدم جر المنطقة لحرب اقليمية

وسيبقي الاشتباك بين الاثنين اشتباكات تكتيكيا جانبيا وليس اشتباك تكتيكي شامل

مع البدء في تكوين تحالف دولي اقليمي في المنطقة في ظاهره لمواجهة ايران وفي باطنه مواجهة التمدد الروسي الصيني في المنطقة

اليمن أنصار الله

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اليمن أنصار الله

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ماذا بعد الضربات الايرانية

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