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Create: 2022-07-18 Update: 2024-05-12 04:22:07

Коротаевнинг мана бу тадқиқоти ўн йил олдин чоп этилган бўлса ҳам, ҳали аҳамиятини йўқотган эмас, лекин ундаги рақамлар ва башоратлар ўн йил олдинга оидлигини хаёлда ушланг.

Сиёсий беқарорлик, ғалаёнлар келиб чиқишининг бир қанча ижтимоий ва демографик омиллари бор:

- одамларнинг ўртача кунлик рациони – 2 300 килокалориядан паст бўлса, бу сиёсий беқарорликка сабаб бўлиши мумкин;

- 20-29 ёшдаги одамларнинг жамиятдаги улуши – 30 фоиздан ошиб кетса, бу муқаррар уруш ва қўзғолонлар дегани;

- шаҳарлашув даражаси – юқоридаги муаммолар ҳал қилинмай туриб шаҳарлар кенгайиши сиёсий беқарорликка сабаб бўлади.

ЯИМ кутилмаганда сиёсий барқарорликда юқоридаги омилларчалик муҳим ўрин тутмайди.

Марказий Осиё давлатларининг аксариятида шаҳарлашув даражаси паст, кунлик рацион минимумдан анча юқори, ёшларнинг кўплиги эса Россияга миграция туфайли салбий таъсир қилмай турибди. Қолаверса, яқинда минтақада ёшларнинг улуши кескин пасайиши кутилмоқда. Ҳукуматлар шундан фойдаланиб, аҳоли кўпайишини ва шаҳарлашувни секинлаштирса, сиёсий беқарорликдан қочса бўлади (спойлер: 2022 йил воқеалари улар бу масалалар билан мутлақо шуғулланмаганини кўрсатиб қўйди).

Ҳозирча минтақанинг портлаш нуқталари Тожикистон ва Афғонистон бўлиб турибди.

Ходунов А.С., Зинькина Ю.В., Коротаев А.В. К прогнозированию социально-политической нестабильности в странах Центральной Азии.

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Коротаевнинг мана бу тадқиқоти ўн йил олдин чоп этилган бўлса ҳам

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