Channel: FxPro
The downside amplitude over these two days, which is the largest in the last two years, cannot be ignored.
On the daily timeframes, the RSI has pulled back sharply from the overbought area, also indicating an active downward move. Earlier, we noted a divergence between this indicator and the price, where two RSI touches of the 85 level were at $2100 and $2350. This was an important precursor to the decline, the development of which we are now seeing.
Nevertheless, the positive scenario remains valid as long as the price is above $2360, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level lies. We assume that gold is capable of returning to the upside after a technical shakeout.
A sell-off in gold over the next couple of days could quickly take the price to $2360. A dip below would be an important first signal of a true reversal.
The ability to go below $2185-2200 within a couple of weeks would raise the question of a long-term trend reversal with a potential downside target before the end of the year at $1900.
On the daily timeframes, the RSI has pulled back sharply from the overbought area, also indicating an active downward move. Earlier, we noted a divergence between this indicator and the price, where two RSI touches of the 85 level were at $2100 and $2350. This was an important precursor to the decline, the development of which we are now seeing.
Nevertheless, the positive scenario remains valid as long as the price is above $2360, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level lies. We assume that gold is capable of returning to the upside after a technical shakeout.
A sell-off in gold over the next couple of days could quickly take the price to $2360. A dip below would be an important first signal of a true reversal.
The ability to go below $2185-2200 within a couple of weeks would raise the question of a long-term trend reversal with a potential downside target before the end of the year at $1900.
Flash Eurozone PMIs revitalised interest in the Euro
Boosted interest in the Euro emerged after preliminary PMI estimates showed a surprising acceleration in the services sector, which was able to offset the negativity from industrial weakness significantly.
Both France (46.2 to 44.9) and Germany (41.9 to 42.2) saw their manufacturing PMIs fall short of expectations (46.9 and 42.8, respectively). This reinforces the notion that the Eurozone industry, in contraction territory since June 2022, has seen its decline intensify since the beginning of the year. This data could bring the start of the ECB's rate-cut cycle closer.
Boosted interest in the Euro emerged after preliminary PMI estimates showed a surprising acceleration in the services sector, which was able to offset the negativity from industrial weakness significantly.
Both France (46.2 to 44.9) and Germany (41.9 to 42.2) saw their manufacturing PMIs fall short of expectations (46.9 and 42.8, respectively). This reinforces the notion that the Eurozone industry, in contraction territory since June 2022, has seen its decline intensify since the beginning of the year. This data could bring the start of the ECB's rate-cut cycle closer.
The services sector, however, paints a contrasting picture. It has been accelerating since the beginning of the year and entered growth territory in March. While France's services sector edged into expansion territory (index at 50.5), Germany marked a significant rise from 50.1 to 53.3. The eurozone-wide services PMI rose from 51.5 to 52.9, its highest level since May 2023.
In our view, the weakness in the Eurozone industries should not be ignored, as it could again be an early signal of a weakening economy, increasing speculation of an imminent rate cut. Short-term, however, the positive surprise from the services sector gives EURUSD a potential rebound towards 1.07 after a 2.5% pullback from 1.0880 to 1.06 earlier this month.
In our view, the weakness in the Eurozone industries should not be ignored, as it could again be an early signal of a weakening economy, increasing speculation of an imminent rate cut. Short-term, however, the positive surprise from the services sector gives EURUSD a potential rebound towards 1.07 after a 2.5% pullback from 1.0880 to 1.06 earlier this month.
#WaveAnalysis
WTI crude oil reversed from support zone
Likely to rise to resistance level 86.00
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the round support level 80.00 (low of wave (iv) from March), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 80.00 stopped the previous ABC correction (4) – forming the daily Hammer.
Give the strength of the support level 80.00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 86.00 (which stopped waves (3) and B).
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WTI crude oil reversed from support zone
Likely to rise to resistance level 86.00
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the round support level 80.00 (low of wave (iv) from March), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 80.00 stopped the previous ABC correction (4) – forming the daily Hammer.
Give the strength of the support level 80.00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 86.00 (which stopped waves (3) and B).
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDCAD reversed from long-term resistance level 1.3840
Likely to fall to support level 1.3600
USDCAD currency pair continues to fall after the pair reversed down with the weekly Shooting Star from the major long-term resistance level 1.3840, which has been reversing the pair from 2022.
The resistance level 1.3840 was strengthened by the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
Give the overbought weekly Stochastic, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.3600.
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#USDCAD reversed from long-term resistance level 1.3840
Likely to fall to support level 1.3600
USDCAD currency pair continues to fall after the pair reversed down with the weekly Shooting Star from the major long-term resistance level 1.3840, which has been reversing the pair from 2022.
The resistance level 1.3840 was strengthened by the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
Give the overbought weekly Stochastic, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.3600.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
HangSeng50 near 17200 (+1.6%) 📈 Updated 5-month high. 👉 Will the growth continue?
Anonymous Poll
82%
📈 BUY
18%
📉 SELL
The #crypto market added 0.5% in 24 hours to $2.46 trillion as a rebound in risk appetite in stocks helped altcoins attract buying interest. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index added 1 point to 72 (Greed).
#Bitcoin is avoiding sharp swings and is trading at $66.75K on Wednesday morning, adding 0.3% in 24 hours but remaining inside the previous day's range. It looks like a very cautious testing of the 50-day moving average (now at $67.3K), but just shy of surpassing it for the third day in a row.
#Ethereum appears more upbeat, adding 2.3% in 24 hours to $3250, once again near the highs since 13 April. However, Ethereum's decline has been deeper, pulling the price back below the support area of March and the first few days of April. Right now, the price is 6% below the 50-day MA that Bitcoin is nearing.
#Bitcoin is avoiding sharp swings and is trading at $66.75K on Wednesday morning, adding 0.3% in 24 hours but remaining inside the previous day's range. It looks like a very cautious testing of the 50-day moving average (now at $67.3K), but just shy of surpassing it for the third day in a row.
#Ethereum appears more upbeat, adding 2.3% in 24 hours to $3250, once again near the highs since 13 April. However, Ethereum's decline has been deeper, pulling the price back below the support area of March and the first few days of April. Right now, the price is 6% below the 50-day MA that Bitcoin is nearing.
The US dollar's gains stalled last week, and on Tuesday, it lost a third of a cent against a basket of major currencies to 105.4 from a peak of 106.3 the week before.
Yesterday's pullback more closely resembles the start of broader profit-taking than a reversal of the dollar's upward trend since early March.
The dollar was somewhat overheated after the 10-12 April spike. In addition, earlier this month, the #DXY entered the turning area of last October. As often happens, the ascent to the previous extremums is fast, but their overcoming indicates a change of the market regime, which happens only after a significant shakeout.
The formal reason for the weakening of the dollar on Tuesday was the positive dynamics of stock indices and the strengthening of the pound, with less certainty for a soon rate cut from BoE.
Yesterday's pullback more closely resembles the start of broader profit-taking than a reversal of the dollar's upward trend since early March.
The dollar was somewhat overheated after the 10-12 April spike. In addition, earlier this month, the #DXY entered the turning area of last October. As often happens, the ascent to the previous extremums is fast, but their overcoming indicates a change of the market regime, which happens only after a significant shakeout.
The formal reason for the weakening of the dollar on Tuesday was the positive dynamics of stock indices and the strengthening of the pound, with less certainty for a soon rate cut from BoE.
Now, there are higher chances for deepening the DXY correction with the potential to go down to 105.3 or even to the area of 104.8-105.0, where many turning points are concentrated. Such a plunge would increase the appeal of buying the dollar against major currencies, removing the technical overheating.
The ability to rise from current levels opens a fast road to the April highs near 106.3, with the finale of this journey near 108.0.
The bearish scenario for the dollar, in our view, will be activated in the event of a failure under 104.8, forcing a search for support in the 103.80-104.0 area.
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The ability to rise from current levels opens a fast road to the April highs near 106.3, with the finale of this journey near 108.0.
The bearish scenario for the dollar, in our view, will be activated in the event of a failure under 104.8, forcing a search for support in the 103.80-104.0 area.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY under bullish pressure
– Likely to rise to resistance level 167.00
EURJPY currency pair under the bullish pressure after the price broke through the key resistance level 165.00, which has been reversing the price from March.
The breakout of the resistance level 165.00 accelerated the active impulse waves iii, 3 and (5).
Give the strength of the active uptrend and the continuation of the yen outflows, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 167.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
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#EURJPY under bullish pressure
– Likely to rise to resistance level 167.00
EURJPY currency pair under the bullish pressure after the price broke through the key resistance level 165.00, which has been reversing the price from March.
The breakout of the resistance level 165.00 accelerated the active impulse waves iii, 3 and (5).
Give the strength of the active uptrend and the continuation of the yen outflows, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 167.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP reversed from resistance level 0.8625
Likely to fall to support level 0.8550
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 0.8625, which has been reversing the price from January, intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from November.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.8625 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing
Give the predominant daily downtrend and the bearish euro sentiment seen today, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.8550.
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#EURGBP reversed from resistance level 0.8625
Likely to fall to support level 0.8550
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 0.8625, which has been reversing the price from January, intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from November.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.8625 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing
Give the predominant daily downtrend and the bearish euro sentiment seen today, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.8550.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
USDJPY surges past 155.5 📈 on the eve of BoJ meeting 🌃
💴Can YEN tumble any lower?
💴Can YEN tumble any lower?
Anonymous Poll
50%
📈 BUY
50%
📉 SELL
Over the past 24 hours, the #crypto market has lost more than 3.5%, falling to a capitalisation of $2.37 trillion.
Bitcoin shows a decline with a similar amplitude; Ethereum lost less than 3%, while BNB added 0.1%, and Solana fell by 6.5%.
On Wednesday, #Bitcoin retreated significantly from its 50-day moving average, which we see as an important manifestation of bearish strength. Most crypto traders clearly took this signal.
For example, on the daily charts of #Solana and #Cardano, the rebound over the past ten days now looks like a tactical retreat by the bears, who decided to sell the market again on Wednesday. It is worth keeping a close eye on whether selling can bring the price below the previous local lows, around $125 for Solana and $0.4 for Cardano.
Bitcoin shows a decline with a similar amplitude; Ethereum lost less than 3%, while BNB added 0.1%, and Solana fell by 6.5%.
On Wednesday, #Bitcoin retreated significantly from its 50-day moving average, which we see as an important manifestation of bearish strength. Most crypto traders clearly took this signal.
For example, on the daily charts of #Solana and #Cardano, the rebound over the past ten days now looks like a tactical retreat by the bears, who decided to sell the market again on Wednesday. It is worth keeping a close eye on whether selling can bring the price below the previous local lows, around $125 for Solana and $0.4 for Cardano.
The Nasdaq100 might retreat to 15800
Change in the Nasdaq100. The selling on the Nasdaq100 from 12 to 19 April, which sent the index down more than 7%, has stimulated buying interest this week. They see falling prices as an opportunity to buy stocks at a reduced cost.
RSI dynamics. The rebound of the index coincided with the recovery of the RSI indicator on daily charts after it reached the oversold zone (below 30). Nevertheless, the April correction can be seen as a normalisation after a period of overbought conditions.
The Fear and Greed Index remains in the "fear" zone, with a low of 32 last week and a subsequent recovery to 40. A similar stock market correction lasting three months last year also included periods of improving sentiment as part of an overall downtrend.
Change in the Nasdaq100. The selling on the Nasdaq100 from 12 to 19 April, which sent the index down more than 7%, has stimulated buying interest this week. They see falling prices as an opportunity to buy stocks at a reduced cost.
RSI dynamics. The rebound of the index coincided with the recovery of the RSI indicator on daily charts after it reached the oversold zone (below 30). Nevertheless, the April correction can be seen as a normalisation after a period of overbought conditions.
The Fear and Greed Index remains in the "fear" zone, with a low of 32 last week and a subsequent recovery to 40. A similar stock market correction lasting three months last year also included periods of improving sentiment as part of an overall downtrend.
Current Situation and Expectations. The Nasdaq100 lost about 1.2% on Wednesday, and the drop from high to low in futures was 2% in 8 hours. The 17700 level has become resistant again. Changes in Fed key rate expectations and investor inertia backed by macroeconomic reports could lead to a repeat of last year's market pattern with a multi-month correction.
Potential downside targets. The area of the 200-day moving average, passing through 16300 and pointing upwards, could be a potential downside target. There is more chance of support in the 15800-16000 range, where the market encountered strong resistance in July 2023 and pushed back for upside in November.
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Potential downside targets. The area of the 200-day moving average, passing through 16300 and pointing upwards, could be a potential downside target. There is more chance of support in the 15800-16000 range, where the market encountered strong resistance in July 2023 and pushed back for upside in November.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
USD strengthened, and stocks fell after the US data. The focus was on the preliminary Q1 GDP estimate. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast. Disappointment increased given that exceeding forecasts has become the norm. GDP growth for the same quarter a year earlier fell to 3.0% from 3.1%.
In contrast, the price index showed a 3.1% increase from 1.6% previously. Thus, the U.S. economy simultaneously faced increased inflationary pressures and slowing growth. This has caused even more concerns among those who fear stagflation.
At the same time, a new batch of very positive weekly unemployment data was released. Initial jobless claims fell to 207K, the lowest since February. The number of repeat claims fell to 1781K - the lowest in three months. It is worth noting that these are very low figures by historical standards. The tense situation in the labour market will create domestic inflationary pressures even if commodity prices start to decline.
In contrast, the price index showed a 3.1% increase from 1.6% previously. Thus, the U.S. economy simultaneously faced increased inflationary pressures and slowing growth. This has caused even more concerns among those who fear stagflation.
At the same time, a new batch of very positive weekly unemployment data was released. Initial jobless claims fell to 207K, the lowest since February. The number of repeat claims fell to 1781K - the lowest in three months. It is worth noting that these are very low figures by historical standards. The tense situation in the labour market will create domestic inflationary pressures even if commodity prices start to decline.
Viking Sets Sail for IPO on May 1st – Catch the Waves with FxPro!
Viking Holdings, the cruise line known for its luxurious escapes, is setting sail for the public market, with an expected trading date of May 1, 2024. But you don’t need a ticket to ride this wave!
Here’s how you can chart your course with CFDs:
Buy the Dip or Sell the Swell? Viking’s IPO is expected to be valued at up to $10.8 billion, so the choice is yours! CFDs let you trade on price movements, no matter the direction.
The expected price range of $21-$25 per share makes CFD trading Viking accessible, with trading offered from 0.01 of a share.
👉The new Stock will be available to Buy or Sell on the FxPro MT5 account shortly after it goes live.
Viking Holdings, the cruise line known for its luxurious escapes, is setting sail for the public market, with an expected trading date of May 1, 2024. But you don’t need a ticket to ride this wave!
Here’s how you can chart your course with CFDs:
Buy the Dip or Sell the Swell? Viking’s IPO is expected to be valued at up to $10.8 billion, so the choice is yours! CFDs let you trade on price movements, no matter the direction.
The expected price range of $21-$25 per share makes CFD trading Viking accessible, with trading offered from 0.01 of a share.
👉The new Stock will be available to Buy or Sell on the FxPro MT5 account shortly after it goes live.
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